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The BIMCO Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook June 2025 predicts a stable demand for the box ship sector, despite new US trade policies.

鈥淲e forecast a stable demand outlook for the container shipping sector in line with our previous report despite the uncertainties introduced by new US trade policies. We expect the supply and demand balance to weaken only slightly in 2025 and 2026, as our ship demand growth forecast now excludes a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routeings,鈥� said BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen.

The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with significant trade policy changes and geopolitical tensions affecting market conditions. In April, the IMF reduced its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, a decrease of 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively.

Particularly, the growth outlook for North America has been lowered due to the increase of US import tariffs.

鈥淒espite the weaker economic outlook, cargo volumes during the first four months of the year have been strong and grew 5.1% year on year,鈥� said Mr Rasmussen.

The report said front-loading of cargo to the US to avoid the higher import tariffs threatened for later in the year has contributed to this growth. However, cargo volumes to four out of seven regions have grown even faster.

For the rest of the year, the analyst has lowered the North America import cargo volume growth forecast and now forecasts an average annual growth rate for North American imports of 1.6% during 2025-2026, the lowest among all regions.

On the other hand, it has lifted its 2025 growth forecast for volumes into the Europe and Mediterranean region. Volumes to the region have grown 7.3% during the first four months of the year and economic conditions are improving.

鈥淥verall, the container shipping market is navigating through a complex landscape of trade policies, economic conditions and geopolitical tensions. Significant demand uncertainties therefore still exist. As an example, we estimate a return to normal routeings through the Red Sea and Suez Canal would lower ship demand by 10%. In our base case, we expect a weakening of the supply and demand balance during the second half of 2025 and expect freight rates to retreat accordingly. In 2026, we anticipate a further, albeit less pronounced, weakening of freight rates and the supply and demand balance,鈥� said Mr Rasmussen.